Signs of Stability: Is Dubai’s Market Finally Maturing?

This week, Daniel Maloney, Revenue and Performance Director, and Paul Kelly, Operations Director, explore how Dubai is evolving into a more mature and stable market. They also take a closer look at the potential impact of Trump’s policies on interest rates and what this could mean for buyers. Plus, will we finally see rental prices begin to ease? Tune in to this week’s episode for expert insights and thoughtful analysis.

Sales Down Q-on-Q, But Up Big Year-on-Year

Total value in Q1 was down 2% quarter-on-quarter, but there was a 23% increase year-on-year – and a 29% jump in value. So things are definitely still heading in the right direction.” Dan and Paul were quick to point out that quarter on quarter comparisons can be misleading, especially in property. Transactions take, what, 8 to 12 weeks? So judging things on a quarter-by-quarter basis is always going to be a bit short-sighted. For me, year-on-year gives you the real story and that story is, the market’s still busy and maturing.”

A Stabilising Market is a Confident One

Interestingly, they talked about how a stabilising market isn’t a bad thing. Quite the opposite. Investors like predictability. If prices are going up 25–30% every quarter, it feels volatile, but when you see smaller, steady increases, you get more confidence in the long-term they discuss. “It’s part of what they describe as Dubai becoming a “mature market” – something we’ve heard more and more recently. “Six years ago, it was very different. Now there’s the golden visa scheme, a more structured ecosystem, and just genuine reasons why people want to live and invest here.” says Dan.

Is The Rental Market Slowing Down?

Dan brings up that there has been a bit of noise around the rental market seeing a dip but the team don’t reckon it’s a cause for alarm. “We’ve seen a 9% decline in rental renewals and a 19% drop in new contracts, but prices haven’t really budged, only about 1% down, which is nothing.” They linked it back to more people choosing to buy rather than rent, “The lower end of the sales market is heating up. People are arriving in Dubai and getting straight onto the ladder especially with off-plan options around the 1.4m AED mark.That’s how a mature market works, people buy, benefit from capital growth, then maybe move up the ladder later.

High-End Market Still Flying

They gave a shout to the top-performing areas in quarter one, Jumeirah Golf Estates and Al Barari, continuing to smash it. The JGE team has a 52% market share which means that one in every two homes sold in the market is going through them.

“We’re seeing transactions now at AED 250–300 million and they’re not even making headlines anymore” says Dan. It’s not just the ultra-prime market. There’s solid activity across price points, especially between AED one to three million and five to ten million. They discuss the 16% increase in viewings in Q1 versus last year, demonstrating interest across the board

Landlords – Time to Upgrade?

With more people buying and some rental slowdown, landlords might need to stay sharp. Paul and Dan mention that If you’ve got an older property and all the new stock’s coming in shiny and brand-new, you’ll need to spruce yours up or risk losing value.

But again, no doom and gloom here there’s still demand with people moving here. There’s no rental price crash incoming. There was also talk about population growth expected to hit four million plus by year-end and what that means for the market.

“It just backs everything up, you walk around Dubai and the place is buzzing. F&B is busy, malls are packed, people are spending, that energy feeds into the property market.” For those wondering whether now’s a good time to buy? Dan says, “if the people in the industry are buying themselves, that’s usually a good sign.”

If you’re on the fence, thinking about buying, or just want a clearer view of the market – this episode is full of gems. As always, if there’s any data or trends you want them to dig into deeper, drop them a message.

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